The blended (actuals + estimates) sales decline for $SPX for Q4, as of today, is -3.4%.

Update: Velocity of Money. How many times does a dollar cycle through the economy? Answer: less & less. Why? DEBT! Got it, yet?

A Dead Canary in Your Home? Think Securities Are Unstable? Wait 'Til You See Your Home Price Fall. Especially at Top End. Get Out of Anything Not Needed. Everyone Runs For the Exits at Same Time--When It's TOO LATE! You Will Remember These Words....

Oil: Believe Fundamentals, Not Price. You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

U.S. crude inventories still hitting new highs. Only time higher was late 1920s.

U.S. keeps adding to inventories by importing MORE.

Domestic production still refuses to cross below 2015 peak.

U.S. gasoline inventories still peaking.

Plenty of ethanol inventory.

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h/t SoberLook

Treasury Curve is Now Flattest Since Early 2008

RE DOWNTURN (canary) has arrived! I've been warning for years. Still time to get out in West. Probably worse than 2008. Great analyst: Mark Hanson.

"...the downside risk to real estate prices all over the US has never been greater.   Coast to coast – largely in the same regions as in 2006 – bubbles of extreme and unusual girth are leaking air just like Miami/Dade."

READ!!!

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index