Economic Commentary

“Someday financial markets will decline...rising stock/bond markets will no longer be government policy. QE will end and money won’t be free. Corporate failure will be permitted. The economy will turn. Someday, somewhere, somehow, investors will lose money and once again come to favor capital preservation over speculation. Someday, interest rates will be higher, bond prices lower, and the prospective return from owning fixed-income instruments will again be commensurate with risk.” Seth Klarman

Monday, July 27, 2015

Durable Goods Flash Recession: "We are going to need much more double-seasonal-adjustments to fix this data."

"Durable Goods new orders has now fallen 5 months in a row (after revisions) flashing a orangey/red recession warning.

After 2 weak months, Durable Goods bounced more than expected in June (+3.4% vs +3.2% exp) - though non-seasonally-adjusted dropped 3.1% MoM. But ex-Transports remain deeply in recession territory.

There was an unexpected drop in Capital Goods Shipments non-defense Ex-Air which fell 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.6% rise), but mosty worrying is that Core CapEx collapsed 6.6% YoY - the second biggest decline since Lehman.

We are going to need much more double-seasonal-adjustments to fix this data."

Charts: Bloomberg, ZH

LINK

Economic Commentary

Monday, July 27, 2015

Durable Goods Flash Recession: "We are going to need much more double-seasonal-adjustments to fix this data."

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